BLACK SWAN BOOK

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The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a book by author and former options trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb. The book focuses on the. download The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With Browse our editors' picks for the best books of the month in fiction, nonfiction. Editorial Reviews. bestthing.info Review. Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, .


Black Swan Book

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The Black Swan book. Read reviews from the world's largest community for readers. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal ch. The Black Swan: Second Edition by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, , available at Book Depository with free delivery worldwide. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan leaves Giles Foden feeling underwhelmed by its theories of improbability.

Well, these professions produce a large cemetery: The problem lies in the structure of our minds: We scorn the abstract; we scorn it with passion. Or even getting the Nobel Prize in a real discipline say, medicine?

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

They will interpret random noise as valuable data. While the scholastic-minded will memorize declensions, the a-Platonic nonnerd will acquire, say, Serbo-Croatian by picking up potential girlfriends in bars on the outskirts of Sarajevo, or talking to cabdrivers, then fitting if needed grammatical rules to the knowledge he already possesses. Mediocristan is the linear, limited difference, expectable realm of human height and running speeds. Extremistan is the unexpectable, Black Swan world of financial markets, book sales, and death by terrorism.

The Turkey: On the afternoon of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, something unexpected will happen to the turkey.

It will incur a revision of belief. Both conclusions rely on the exact same data.

Black Swans are relative to your knowledge and expectations, what is a Black Swan to some may be completely expected to others. The butcher is not surprised before Thanksgiving, but the Turkey is.

Stuck in Mediocristan

Avoid situations where you can be a fool in a huge way, avoid dependence on large potentially harmful predictions. Domain Specific Knowledge: The author then elucidates his approach to historical analysis.

He describes history as opaque, essentially a black box of cause and effect. One sees events go in and events go out, but one has no way of determining which produced what effect.

Taleb argues this is due to The Triplet of Opacity. She published her book on the web and was discovered by a small publishing company; they published her unedited work and the book became an international bestseller. The small publishing firm became a big corporation, and Yevgenia became famous.

This incident is described as a Black Swan event. The book goes on to admit that the so-called author is a work of fiction. Yevgenia rejects the distinction between fiction and nonfiction.

She also hates the very idea of forcing things into well defined "categories", holding that the world generally is complex and not easy to define. Though female, the character is based, in part, autobiographically on the author according to Taleb , who has many of the same traits.

The third chapter introduces the concepts of Extremistan and Mediocristan. He uses them as guides to define how predictable the environment one's studying is.

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

Mediocristan environments safely can use Gaussian distribution. Podcast Episode Summary Notes A Black Swan has three characteristics: It is an outlier beyond the normal range of expectations because nothing in the past could point to it being likely to happen. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can.

Well, these professions produce a large cemetery: the pool of starving actors is larger than the one of starving accountants, even if you assume that, on average, they earn the same income.

We scorn the abstract; we scorn it with passion.

Podcast Episode

Or even getting the Nobel Prize in a real discipline say, medicine? They will interpret random noise as valuable data.

While the scholastic-minded will memorize declensions, the a-Platonic nonnerd will acquire, say, Serbo-Croatian by picking up potential girlfriends in bars on the outskirts of Sarajevo, or talking to cabdrivers, then fitting if needed grammatical rules to the knowledge he already possesses. Extremistan: Mediocristan is the linear, limited difference, expectable realm of human height and running speeds.

Extremistan is the unexpectable, Black Swan world of financial markets, book sales, and death by terrorism.If you want to save this summary for later, download the free PDF and read it whenever you want. It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.

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Not necessarily more likely, but more life changing. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible.

The same cannot be said for The Black Swan, which despite the great utility of its insights is badly structured and hurriedly written. So do many others.

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