Book: 7 Clues to Winning You () by Kristin Walker Format: PDF,EPUB,TXT, FB2 + Paperback. When I started reading this book, I was sure I would find the. Baen's eBook marketplace. eBooks with no DRM in every major format--for the site, iPad, Nook, and more. was nought seven fifteen, getting-up time for office workers. .. The only real clue lay in the words .. 'Of course we can't afford to take chances,' agreed Win-.
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Seventh Mark (Hidden Secrets Saga Parts ) by W.J. May: If you discovered something about yourself that was less than pleasant, would you search for the. Once that's done you can locate the ePub file that you need to import into Calibre within the folder that ADE created GET A CLUE. I confirm the DRM- Removal plugin does not work within Calibre (acsm file, win 7 bit). Check out these 21 basic mistakes to make sure you're not That's because your average e-book author doesn't have a clue about writing a book. . #7: Only Writing When You Feel Like It . Read through your whole e-book, preferably in. pdf form, on paper, or on your tablet, before you begin editing.
Which is why Blythe succeeds in stopping this year's Senior Scramble and ends up getting hated on by everyone at school. Enter Luke, the guy who had an e-newspaper where Blythe's photo was published and he's a senior. When Blythe realizes the mistake she made by canceling the Senior Scramble she asks Luke to help her create an underground Senior Scramble. And here is when the fun starts! I loved Blythe, while sometimes her logic escaped her, she was a pretty likable character!
She wasn't a snob in terms of being on a 'different tax quota' from the students at Ash Groove her new school. She never really flaunted her money even though we know she's loaded.
As for Luke, he was a very crush worthy character! The students could guess as many numbers as they wanted, but could try to identify the rule only once. Most students suggested 8 as the next number, and the professor replied: The professor replied each time: He tested out the number Apparently he had an idea, and he was trying to find a flaw with it.
Only when he could no longer find a counter- example, the student said: What distinguished the resourceful student from the others? While the majority of students sought merely to confirm their theories, he tried to find fault with his, consciously looking for disconfirming evidence. You might think: How it affects our lives will be revealed in the next chapter. See also Availability Bias ch. We are forced to establish beliefs about the world, our lives, the economy, investments, our careers and more.
We deal mostly in assumptions, and the more nebulous these are, the stronger the confirmation bias. Both parties, the philanthropists and the misanthropes, simply filter disconfirming evidence evidence to the contrary and focus instead on the do-gooders and dictators who support their worldviews. Astrologers and economists operate on the same principle.
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They utter prophecies so vague that any event can substantiate them: What will cause the dollar to depreciate? And, depreciation measured against what — gold, yen, pesos, wheat, residential property in Manhattan, the average price of a hot dog? Religious and philosophical beliefs represent an excellent breeding ground for the confirmation bias.
Here, in soft, spongy terrain, it grows wild and free. It is never to the masses in, say, Frankfurt or New York. Counter-arguments are dismissed by the faithful, demonstrating just how powerful the confirmation bias is. No professionals suffer more from the confirmation bias than business journalists. For example: Rarely does the writer seek out disconfirming evidence, which in this instance would be struggling businesses that live and breathe creativity or, conversely, flourishing firms that are utterly uncreative.
Both groups have plenty of members, but the journalist simply ignores them. If he or she were to mention just one, the storyline would be ruined. Self-help and get-rich-quick books are further examples of blinkered storytelling.
The Internet is particularly fertile ground for the confirmation bias. To stay informed, we browse news sites and blogs, forgetting that our favoured pages mirror our existing values, be they liberal, conservative or somewhere in between. Moreover, a lot of sites now tailor content to personal interests and browsing history, causing new and divergent opinions to vanish from the radar altogether. We inevitably land in communities of like-minded people, further reinforcing our convictions — and the confirmation bias.
Literary critic Arthur Quiller-Couch had a memorable motto: To fight against the confirmation bias, try writing down your beliefs — whether in terms of worldview, investments, marriage, healthcare, diet, career strategies — and set out to find disconfirming evidence. Axeing beliefs that feel like old friends is hard work, but imperative. See also Introspection Illusion ch. Authorities pose two main problems to clear thinking: There are about one million trained economists on the planet, and not one of them could accurately predict the timing of the financial crisis with the exception of Nouriel Roubini and Nassim Taleb , let alone how the collapse would play out, from the real-estate bubble bursting to credit default swaps collapsing, right through to the full-blown economic crunch.
Never has a group of experts failed so spectacularly. The story from the medical world is much the same: Psychologist Stanley Milgram demonstrated the authority bias most clearly in an experiment in His subjects were instructed to administer ever- increasing electrical shocks to a person sitting on the other side of a pane of glass. They were told to start with 15 volts, then 30V, 45V and so on, until they reached the maximum — a lethal dose of V.
The results were, well, shocking: More than half of the participants went all the way up to maximum voltage — out of sheer obedience to authority.
Over the past decade, airlines have also learned the dangers of the authority bias. In the old days, the captain was king. His commands were not to be doubted. In other words: CRM has contributed more to flight safety in the past twenty years than any technical advances have.
Many companies are light years from this sort of foresight. Doctors and researchers sport white coats. Bank directors don suits and ties. Kings wear crowns. Members of the military wield rank badges. Today, even more symbols and props are used to signal expertise: Authority changes much like fashion does, and society follows it just as much. And when you encounter one in the flesh, do your best to challenge him or her. See also Twaddle Tendency ch.
Sid was in charge of sales and Harry led the tailoring department. Whenever Sid noticed that the customers who stood before the mirror really liked their suits, he became a little hard of hearing. He would call to his brother: Maybe you know the following experiment from your schooldays: Fill the first with lukewarm water and the second with ice water.
Dip your right hand into the ice water for one minute. Then put both hands into the lukewarm water. What do you notice? The lukewarm water feels as it should to the left hand but piping hot to the right hand. Both of these stories epitomise the contrast effect: We have difficulty with absolute judgements. T h e contrast effect is a common misconception. All industries that offer upgrade options exploit this illusion.
T h e contrast effect is at work in other places, too. Logically, you should walk back in both cases or not at all. Without the contrast effect, the discount business would be completely untenable.
The starting price should play no role. The other day an investor told me: It is what it is, and the only thing that matters is whether it goes up or down from that point.
When we encounter contrasts, we react like birds to a gunshot: Our weak spot: Similarly, we fail to notice how our money disappears. The contrast effect can ruin your whole life: But because her parents were awful people, the ordinary man appears to be a prince. One final thought: If you are seeking a partner, never go out in the company of your supermodel friends. People will find you less attractive than you really are. Go alone or, better yet, take two ugly friends. Not even when he goes on vacation, and his apartment has never been broken into.
When we speak like this, we succumb to the availability bias. Are there more English words that start with a K or more words with K as their third letter? Why do most people believe the opposite is true? Because we can think of words beginning with a K more quickly. They are more available to our memory. T h e availability bias says this: Thanks to the availability bias, we travel through life with an incorrect risk map in our heads.
Thus, we systematically overestimate the risk of being the victim of a plane crash, a car accident or a murder. And we underestimate the risk of dying from less spectacular means, such as diabetes or stomach cancer. We attach too much likelihood to spectacular, flashy or loud outcomes. Anything silent or invisible we downgrade in our minds. Our brains imagine show-stopping outcomes more readily than mundane ones. We think dramatically, not quantitatively.
Doctors often fall victim to the availability bias. They have their favourite treatments, which they use for all possible cases. Consequently they practise what they know.
Consultants are no better. If they come across an entirely new case, they do not throw up their hands and sigh: If something is repeated often enough, it gets stored at the forefront of our minds. In addition, people prefer information that is easy to obtain, be it economic data or recipes. They make decisions based on this information rather than on more relevant but harder to obtain information — often with disastrous results.
For example, we have known for ten years that the so-called Black—Scholes formula for the pricing of derivative financial products does not work. It is as if you were in a foreign city without a map, and then pulled out one for your home town and simply used that. We prefer wrong information to no information. Thus, the availability bias has presented the banks with billions in losses. What was it that Frank Sinatra sang?
Fend it off by spending time with people who think differently than you think — people whose experiences and expertise are different than yours. See also Ambiguity Aversion ch. The symptoms were new to me, and the pain was growing by the day.
Eventually I decided to seek help at a local clinic. A young doctor began to inspect me, prodding my stomach, gripping my shoulders and knees and then poking each vertebra. To signal its end, he pulled out his notebook and said: Take one tablet three times a day.
The pain grew worse and worse — just as the doctor had predicted. The doctor must have known what was wrong with me after all. After two more days of agony, I finally called the international air ambulance. The Swiss doctor diagnosed appendicitis and operated on me immediately.
I replied: That Corsican doctor had no idea. Probably just the same type of stand-in you find in all the tourist places in high season. Sales are in the toilet, the salespeople are unmotivated, and the marketing campaign has sunk without a trace. In his desperation, he hires a consultant. I can fix it for you — but not overnight. The measures will require sensitivity, and most likely, sales will fall further before things improve. A year later, sales fall, and the same thing happens the next year.
If the problem continues to worsen, the prediction is confirmed. If the situation improves unexpectedly, the customer is happy and the expert can attribute it to his prowess. Either way he wins. Suppose you are president of a country, and have no idea how to run it. Naturally you leave the duration and severity of the period open. Disasters, floods, fires, death — they are all part of the larger plan and must take place. Believers will view any deterioration of the situation as confirmation of the prophecy, and any improvement as a gift from God.
But beware: For example, a career change requires time and often incorporates loss of pay. The reorganisation of a business also takes time. But in all these cases, we can see relatively quickly if the measures are working.
The milestones are clear and verifiable. Look to these rather than to the heavens. See also Action Bias ch. Imagine that an invisible Martian decides to follow you around with an equally invisible notebook, recording what you do, think and dream. We like to knit this jumble of details into a neat story. We want our lives to form a pattern that can be easily followed. We do the same with world history, shaping the details into a consistent story. We comprehend why the Iron Curtain had to fall or why Harry Potter became a best-seller.
We simply build the meaning into them afterward. Stories are dubious entities. But apparently we cannot do without them. Why remains unclear. What is clear is that people first used stories to explain the world, before they began to think scientifically, making mythology older than philosophy. This has led to the story bias. In the media, the story bias rages like wildfire.
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What do we read the next day? We hear the tale of the unlucky driver, where he came from and where he was going. We read his biography: The absurd thing: Was it fatigue? If not, was the bridge damaged? If so, by what? Was a proper design even used? Where are there other bridges of the same design?
Stories attract us; abstract details repel us. Consequently, entertaining side issues and backstories are prioritised over relevant facts.
On the upside, if it were not for this, we would be stuck with only non-fiction books. Here are two stories from the English novelist E. Which one would you remember better? According to information theory, we should be able to hold on to A better: Advertisers have learned to capitalise on this too. Take a look at it on YouTube. From our own life stories to global events, we shape everything into meaningful stories. Doing so distorts reality and affects the quality of our decisions, but there is a remedy: Ask yourself: Visit the library and spend half a day reading old newspapers.
To experience the effect once more, try to view your life story out of context. Whenever you hear a story, ask yourself: The omitted elements might not be of relevance.
The real issue with stories: See also False Causality ch. In , he emigrated from a tiny Swiss village to Paris to seek his fortune in the movie industry.
In August , two months after Paris was occupied, he noted: Their officers also confirmed this to me. England will fall as fast as France did, and then we will finally have our Parisian lives back — albeit as part of Germany. In retrospect, the actual course of the war appears the most likely of all scenarios.
However, just twelve months later, the financial markets imploded. Asked about the crisis, the same experts enumerated its causes: In hindsight, the reasons for the crash seem painfully obvious.
The hindsight bias is one of the most prevailing fallacies of all. If a CEO becomes successful due to fortunate circumstances he will, looking back, rate the probability of his success a lot higher than it actually was.
One particularly blundering example: But back then, nobody would have dreamed of such an escalation.
It would have sounded too absurd. So why is the hindsight bias so perilous? Well, it makes us believe we are better predictors than we actually are, causing us to be arrogant about our knowledge and consequently to take too much risk. And not just with global issues: It was always going to go wrong, they were just so different. Studies have shown that people who are aware of it fall for it just as much as everyone else.
Write down your predictions — for political changes, your career, your weight, the stock market and so on. Then, from time to time, compare your notes with actual developments.
You will be amazed at what a poor forecaster you are.
See also Fallacy of the Single Cause ch. He composed numerous works. How many there were I will reveal at the end of this chapter. How much confidence should we have in our own knowledge? Psychologists Howard Raiffa and Marc Alpert, wondering the same thing, have interviewed hundreds of people in this way. The results were amazing. The researchers dubbed this amazing phenomenon overconfidence. We systematically overestimate our knowledge and our ability to predict — on a massive scale.
The overconfidence effect does not deal with whether single estimates are correct or not. Rather, it measures the difference between what people really know and what they think they know. However, the professor will offer his forecast with certitude. Overconfidence does not stop at economics: Entrepreneurs and those wishing to marry also deem themselves to be different: In fact, entrepreneurial activity would be a lot lower if overconfidence did not exist.
For example, every restaurateur hopes to establish the next Michelin-starred restaurant, even though statistics show that most close their doors after just three years. The return on investment in the restaurant business lies chronically below zero. Hardly any major projects exist that are completed in less time and at a lower cost than forecasted.
The list can be added to at will. Why is that? Here, two effects act in unison. First, you have classic overconfidence. Second, those with a direct interest in the project have an incentive to underestimate the costs: We will examine this strategic misrepresentation Chapter 89 later in the book.
What makes overconfidence so prevalent and its effect so confounding is that it is not driven by incentives; it is raw and innate. No surprise to some readers: Even more troubling: Even self-proclaimed pessimists overrate themselves — just less extremely. Be sceptical of predictions, especially if they come from so-called experts. And with all plans, favour the pessimistic scenario. This way you have a chance of judging the situation somewhat realistically. Back to the question from the beginning: Johann Sebastian Bach composed works that survived to this day.
He may have composed considerably more, but they are lost. See also Illusion of Skill ch. Wherever he was invited, he delivered the same lecture on new quantum mechanics. Over time, his chauffeur grew to know it by heart: How about I do it for you in Munich?
Why can't you open that EPUB?
Later, a physics professor stood up with a question. The driver recoiled: My chauffeur will answer it. First, we have real knowledge. We see it in people who have committed a large amount of time and effort to understanding a topic. The second type is chauffeur knowledge — knowledge from people who have learned to put on a show. They reel off eloquent words as if reading from a script. Unfortunately, it is increasingly difficult to separate true knowledge from chauffeur knowledge.
With news anchors, however, it is still easy.
These are actors. Everyone knows it. And yet it continues to astound me how much respect these perfectly-coiffed script readers enjoy, not to mention how much they earn moderating panels about topics they barely fathom.
With journalists, it is more difficult. Some have acquired true knowledge. Often they are veteran reporters who have specialised for years in a clearly defined area. They make a serious effort to understand the complexity of a subject and to communicate it. They tend to write long articles that highlight a variety of cases and exceptions.
The majority of journalists, however, fall into the category of chauffeur. They conjure up articles off the tops of their heads, or rather, from Google searches. Their texts are one-sided, short, and — often as compensation for their patchy knowledge — snarky and self-satisfied in tone.
The same superficiality is present in business. Dedication, solemnity, and reliability are undervalued, at least at the top. What lies inside this circle you understand intuitively; what lies outside, you may only partially comprehend. But it is terribly important that you know where the perimeter is. How do you recognise the difference? There is a clear indicator: From chauffeurs, we hear every line except this.
See also Authority Bias ch. After five minutes he disappears. One day, a policeman comes up to him and asks: I went to the store, checked a few boxes, wrote his name on it and paid. As I handed him the copy of the ticket, he balked. I wanted to do that. He looked at me blankly.
In casinos, most people throw the dice as hard as they can if they need a high number, and as gingerly as possible if they are hoping for a low number — which is as nonsensical as football fans thinking they can swing a game by gesticulating in front of the TV. T h e illusion of control is the tendency to believe that we can influence something over which we have absolutely no sway.
This was discovered in by two researchers, Jenkins and Ward. Their experiment was simple, consisting of just two switches and a light. The men were able to adjust when the switches connected to the light and when not. Even when the light flashed on and off at random, subjects were still convinced that they could influence it by flicking the switches. Or consider this example: For this, he placed people in sound booths and increased the volume until the subjects signalled him to stop.
The button was purely for show, but it gave participants the feeling that they were in control of the situation, leading them to withstand significantly more noise. Crossing the street in Los Angeles is a tricky business, but luckily, at the press of a button, we can stop traffic. Or can we? Such tricks are also designed into open-plan offices: Clever technicians create the illusion of control by installing fake temperature dials.
This reduces energy bills — and complaints. Central bankers and government officials employ placebo buttons masterfully. Take, for instance, the federal funds rate, which is an extreme short-term rate, an overnight rate to be precise. Nobody understands why overnight interest rates can have such an effect on the market, but everybody thinks they do, and so they do. The same goes for pronouncements made by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve; markets move, even though these statements inject little of tangible value into the real economy.
They are merely sound waves. And still we allow economic heads to continue to play with the illusory dials.
Only for Love by Cristin Harber
It would be a real wake-up call if all involved realised the truth — that the world economy is a fundamentally uncontrollable system. Do you have everything under control? Probably less than you think. Do not think you command your way through life like a Roman emperor.
Rather, you are the man with the red hat. Therefore, focus on the few things of importance that you can really influence. For everything else: See also Coincidence ch. Yes, many rats were destroyed, but many were also bred specially for this purpose. Instead of lots of extra scrolls being found, they were simply torn apart to increase the reward.
Similarly, in China in the nineteenth century, an incentive was offered for finding dinosaur bones. Farmers located a few on their land, broke them into pieces and cashed in. Modern incentives are no better: And what happens? Managers invest more energy in trying to lower the targets than in growing the business. These are examples of the incentive super-response tendency. Credited to Charlie Munger, this titanic name describes a rather trivial observation: Good incentive systems comprise both intent and reward.
An example: Poor incentive systems, on the other hand, overlook and sometimes even pervert the underlying aim. For example, censoring a book makes its contents more famous and rewarding bank employees for each loan sold leads to a miserable credit portfolio.
Nobody wants to be the loser CEO in his industry. Do you want to influence the behaviour of people or organisations? You could always preach about values and visions, or you could appeal to reason. But in nearly every case, incentives work better. These need not be monetary; anything is useable, from good grades to Nobel Prizes to special treatment in the afterlife.
For a long time I tried to understand what made well-educated nobles from the Middle Ages bid adieu to their comfortable lives, swing themselves up on to horses and take part in the Crusades.
And then it came to me: If they came back alive, they could keep the spoils of war and live out their days as rich men. If they died, they automatically passed on to the afterlife as martyrs — with all the benefits that came with it. It was win-win. We would effectively be incentivising them to take as long as possible, right? So why do we do just this with lawyers, architects, consultants, accountants and driving instructors? My advice: Be wary, too, of investment advisers endorsing particular financial products.
They are not interested in your financial well-being, but in earning a commission on these products. Hot Topics: Why can't you open that EPUB? By Mike Williams Published 3 years ago. Got News? Contact Us. Google Maps 'Popular Dishes' feature gonna get gourmands, gastronomes, and gourmets giddy.How do you rate the performance of A, B and C?
Apparently you didnt learn anything from the napster debacle. Psychologists Howard Raiffa and Marc Alpert, wondering the same thing, have interviewed hundreds of people in this way. Perverse Consequences by Robert Blain: It is quite possible, however, that the stay contributed absolutely nothing. Insert blank line does the opposite, guaranteeing that there is exactly one blank line between each pair of paragraphs.
He concluded that they share the following pattern: Biographies, Memoirs, History, and Business books. One example: